we want you to be a part of it. do you see economic opportunity in those three cities? let us know. opportunity usa is the hashtag. send us your names, companies, people we need to meet. places we need to have a pint of beer to watch the ncaa tournament tonight because i land at halftime. aka give united airlines a lot of money road trip. "closing bell" with mandy drury is next. and we do welcome you to the "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange where we've had another interesting day for stocks. another comeback day, mandy drury. welcome back. >> great to be back. i'm mandy drury at the headquarters out here in new jersey in for maria bartiromo who, by the way, will be back tomorrow. on today's show we are watching this market very, very closely. because let's not forget it. it was at this hour on friday when everything really changed for stocks. what an ugly day it was after the bad jobs report.

and almost came all the way back, right, bill? anything can happen as we know in these next 60 minutes of trade. >> as it usually does. we'll talk about that and why that happens. the market also bracing for the start of earnings season. which kicks off on this program in an hour when dow component alcoa reports its first quarter numbers. ceo klaus kleinfeld will join us. listen for that and what he has to say coming up in a little bit. let's take a look at what the markets are up to right now. as we speak, the dow is back in the black. clearly see there in the chart it is up just by a smidgeon. we'll take what we can get. 14,570. the nasdaq has also pushed into the black as well. let's take a look at the numbers there. it's up by about seven points. the s&p 500 also is moving higher by about four points at 1557. >> some of the biggest market reversal swings have happened right here in the final hour of

trading. we brought it to you in living color on friday, for example. especially among the transports, mandy. they were down 2% at the low of the day on friday. came all the way back and finished positive for the day. huge swing there. >> huge swing. so what is going to happen today? we've got the "closing bell exchange." danny hughes from divine capital. rich bernstein, cnbc contributor from richard bernstein advisers. peter cochini and our very own rick santelli. a cast of thousands. great to have you with us today. danny, let's start with ladies first. what do you think is going to happen in the last final hour of trade. >> it ain't over till it's over. this is case in point. you know, the great thing about this market is it's been very exciting to watch. we get even into a much more exciting trend now as earnings season starts. on friday, don't forget, we had a big day on friday. in the middle of the day, we had some really interesting things happen. first of all, we had that miss for u.s. jobs. and then we have the bank of japan coming in and buying $1.4

trillion of assets. so i think that got people listening. i think that we're going to see that a lot more, especially over the next two weeks of this earnings season. it's going to be very interesting to watch. >> rich bernstein, i know you are bullish on this market in a big way. what does it mean to you that this market just does not want to seem to quit? we haven't had the correction that everybody's been waiting for. and then you get these reversals in the last hour of trade. what's going on here? >> well, bill, i'm going to tell you i'm not smart enough to tell you what's going on in the last hour. i will tell you that i think that it has paid and will continue to pay to err on the side of optimism. the economy continues to improve. you get a lot of volatility intraday. that's showing there's a huge amount of skepticism out there. despite the fact we're down near -- people don't believe there's a bull market. i would say err on the side of optimism as you see volatility. >> rich, i'm going to pick you up on that. is the economy really improving?

recently we've had a spate of lackluster if not nasty data. people are starting to say maybe the economy is disconnected from the market. >> i think what's interesting, mandy, about friday's numbers which are really the last ones to come out, the headline numbers were certainly weaker than people expected. there's no doubt about that. but what got virtually no attention from people is that the two major leading indicators in that report both hit cycle highs. as an investor, i care about the leading indicators. i don't care about the lagging indicators like the unemployment rate. >> and then there's the earnings. peter chakinni, you don't have very high expectations for those numbers that start coming out tonight, do you? >> no, i don't. companies have been guiding lower. 77% of companies that guided from last quarter guided lower on earnings. 71% guided lower on revenues versus about 60% on average. if that's any indication, i don't expect earnings to be much stronger this quarter than they were last. >> maybe possibly --

>> yes the market continues to go higher here, peter. >> yeah. this is to the point made earlier. in my view, at least, there really is a disconnect between the markets and the underlying fundamentals, whether you look at earnings or whether you look at the macroeconomic fundament ams. it really is a central bank led rally. all you need to do is look at the nky and its reaction to the boj's massive stimulus to see exactly how responsive markets can, in fact, be to central bank stimulus. >> we've also seen this story before, haven't we, dani? where already we've seen expectations for earnings being significantly ratcheted down to the point where maybe the bar is so low that it's going to be much easier for the companies to beat? >> that's right. and it used to be an indicator that the market would go lower. but, you know, the disconnect has really been the fed. the fed has been really feeding this market for a number of years. so it's a lot harder to determine what's going to happen. when everybody and their mother is telling you that the market's going to correct, you know, 2%

to 5% to 10%, you know, and it's not happening, there's a reason for that. there's a big reason for that. i do agree that you have to be on the optimistic side of this market going forward. >> rick santelli, speaking of the bank of japan, what havoc they are wreaking in the currency markets around the world. there's talk we could see 100 yen to the dollar this week sometime. >> this week, heck, it could be tomorrow morning. >> it could be. >> by the way it's trading. it's at 99.23 right now. i'm serious. tomorrow morning i think there's a good chance we could be knocking at that door. listen, we have a two-day chart of 10s. we dropped at 8:30 eastern friday obviously. the stock market did as well. here we are all debating about earnings and lowered guidance and maybe diminished earnings, less organic growth. but in the end the training wheels are on. so we're all debating how good the economy is. if it was that great the fed would take them off. but they're not going to. all's i can tell you is, is we continue to have dispror portion

gnat moves. interest rates pretty much stay where they were in response to that weak data because we have on one hand the thumb on the scale, on the other hand we have the foot kicking stocks higher. it's just hard to get gps for either market. >> rich bernstein, what do you do now as an investor? >> well, mandy, i think what's interesting, people are talking about earnings and rick justust pointed out earnings. i think if you're a large cap multinational company you have to worry about the appreciation of the dollar and you have to worry about the weaker economies outside the united states. but what was very interesting was the rotation towards defensive stocks that everybody's been talking about was a large cap phenomenon. and as you go down in market cap and you get more domestically oriented, you find more cyclical companies outperformed. small cap u.s. companies were the best performing asset class in the world in the first quarter. >> right. >> so it's hard to see how -- how, you know, we're on the

precipice here in the united states of disaster when you get returns like that happening. >> dani, very quickly, where would you invest bearing in mind we've had pretty defensive sectors that have done very well in this market the first quarter and suddenly the darling of wall street in the last two weeks are the utility stocks again? >> that's right. it's yields. t it's still yields. we're still looking at yields. despite the fact that buybacks have ratcheted down a little in the fourth quarter, down a little over 4%. we'll probably see that same thing happening in the first quarter. we still think there's a lot of money to be made to sit and wait and be paid to wait. >> we will all wait for the earnings out right at the top of the next hour. we look forward to talking to klaus kleinfeld, ceo at that time. thank you for joining us. where do the markets stand in relation to all-time highs? >> bill, check on major market indexes and where we stand. the dow now just about 90 points

from its record close of 14,662. the s&p 500, benchmark gauge, 12 points from its record close. as to today's trade, it's a yield hungry world out there. that trade continues. let's start with the reits which continue running higher. the msci reit index touching a new five-year high for the third session. the index trading at its highest level now since november 2007. the average dividend yield for this group, 3.7%. simon property group, ticker spg, hitting a new 52-week high today. also, check out the utilities. the dow jones utility average hitting a new 4 1/2 year high. average yield on this one, 3.8%. by the way, the fifth consecutive day that the index reaches a new multiyear high. as for individual movers making new all-time highs today, some big names including disney, viacom, consolation, cabot oil

and gas and news corps. the company president saying the company would consider converting its fox broadcast network into a paid tv channel, accusing an internet startup of stealing the fox broadcast signal for its service. we won't just sit idle and allow our content to be actively stolen, carey saying. back to you. heading toward the close. we've got about 50 minutes left in the trading day. the dow was down 68 points but it's another comeback day. the dow right now up six points as we get ready for earnings. ge is making a $3 billion bet on oil. that is just the latest in a string of energy-related acquisitions for this dow giant. the company is a long way from lightbulbs and aplupliances rig now. the question really is where's it going? should you be following it by owning the stock? after the break we'll find out what ge is really up to. it's all about earnings. we'll be previewing what's expected and which companies may be the big winners and losers in

the first quarter. of course, it all starts with alcoa after the bell tonight. don't miss our exclusive interview with alcoa's chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld. that and much more coming up in this most important hour of the trading day.

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>> jeff jeff immeld making another big move to transform the dow component. mary thompson has more details on this story. mary? >> it's immeld's latest move to strengthen the conglomerate's core business with a bolt of addition in ge's portfolio. paying $88 a share for lufkin industries. expanding its reach in the oil and gas equipment business. a business accounts for 17% of ge's industrial revenue and about 12% of total sales. this is the latest phase of a 12-year transportation immelt's made for the maker of goods. his goal generates 65% of profits from its industrial core business and shrink the finance arm's contribution to 35% from a peak of over 50%. having taken the helm the day before september 11th, immeld's weathered two recessions and a

financial crisis that threatened the firm's existence. over the years among his big moves during his tenure, growing the health care business with the 2004 purchase of amersham. . don't look for any kind of big transformative deal. immelt said for now the focus is on small bolt on acquisitions. phil, back to you. >> 3 billion. that's small. >> for ge, that's small, bill. >> they pay cash. >> yes, they do. >> thanks very much, mary. so what is general electric trying to become, mandy? >> weighing in are two analysts who follow this company very closely. christopher glen of oppenheimer. daniel holland of morning star. christopher, let me ask you, how do you feel this deal to buy lufkin reflects the overall strategy for the future of ge?

>> yeah. it reflects sort of a sea change in the capital allocation strategy over the long term. and refocusing that very targeted acquisitions on the industrial side where during the 2000s, you had pretty aggressive acquisitions of financial portfolios that really boosted the financial growth during the 2000s. but ultimately raised the risk profile as we saw it. now you're seeing a much more focused, targeted, as you said small, 3 billion small for ge, type acquisitions that are low risk profiles. they're really kind of pulling the portfolio very gradually away from the financial and retrenching that very methodically. >> i mean, you have a price target of 25. daniel, you think the stock is under valued as well. what appeals to you as to ge as an investment here? >> if you look at the core industrial franchise, there's a lot of strong fundamental growth

drivers behind the individual segments. think about power generation. ge has products to fit, you know, all different types of fuel sources. also in the commercial aviation space. and now with oil and gas. ge continues to get big and has, you know, fwogood positions in markets that are going to be growing for a long time now. >> without getting too personal, christopher, what kind of score out of ten would you give immelt. he's taken a lot of heat since taking over for jack welch. maybe he's finally hitting his stride now. >> i think hitting his stride is a good point. there's probably three strages f his tenure. first he took over from jack welch at a time when a lot of the core businesses were probably underinvested in. it was overly risk leveraged to some of the financial businesses. and so, you know, there's nowhere to go but down in terms of valuation from a 60 pe. then as sort of did some of the big acquisitions in health care and such as you had mentioned,

there were also, again, not completely cognizant of the risk profile that was building in the capital business. easy for me to say in hindsight here. >> right. >> now you're seeing significant capital formation from the sale of nbcu. $13.5 billion after tax cash. from the whittling down of ge capital, the restoration of that dividend to the parent. and also ge capital giving special dividends to the tune of $4.5 billion this year as its overcapitalized. and that really freeing up the flexibility for accelerated share repurchase. >> okay. >> 10 billion this year expected. while preserving the liquidity needed to do the bolt-on acquisitions. >> daniel -- >> we've got a 3.3% dividend yield that's well above peers. >> daniel, i mean, they've tried -- just before the financial crisis of '08, they tried to sell the lighting division and the consumer

appliance division. those that they were most identified with with the public. didn't find a buyer that would pay what they wanted. now they are thinking about it again, but they're going to hang on for a while. i mean, is that sort of an albatross hanging around them as part of jeff immelt's strategy? or could that work in their favor as the economy continues to improve here? >> yeah. it would be difficult to call it an albatross because they're cash flow generating assets. as you said, as the economy improves, those markets improve. so the consumer gets healthier and those businesses look a lot more attractive to potential investors. so it's possible that you're going to get a much better valuation out of those businesses in the future than you would right now. and so i would say that, you know, it kind of works in ge's favor just to be patient and hold out the market the way they did with several other assets over the last cycle here. >> daniel, in terms of ge being the acquirer, what do you think would make sense for them to target next? or which sector should they target next do you think? >> i think they've done a good job in oil and gas base. i don't see why they wouldn't

continue to look for assets in that space. just fill out the portfolio, look for where they might be potential technology gaps or places where they might be able to leverage nods they have from other parts of the organization. i would like, you know, to still stay inside the oil and gas, potentially aviation as well. >> all right. gentlemen, thank you both for your thoughts on general electric today. our former parent, of course, here at cnbc. thanks for joining us. heading toward the close. 40 minutes left in the trading day. mandy, is the dow still trying to hang on to a gain here? we were down 68 points at the low of the session. another comeback day. >> by the skin of its teeth, bill. in the meantime, macy's and jc penney back in court. for their battle over martha stewart. the latest on this pretty nasty and very personal battle. we're also going to take a look at which retailer stock you should be shopping for. also, you just joined us, alcoa chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld will be here exclusively to break down alcoa's earnings moments after

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they're back at it again. macy's and jc penney officials returning to a new york city

court earlier today for their long running and contentious lawsuit over who can sell martha stewart products. now, macy's shares hit their highest level today since 2007. meanwhile, jc penney shares, of course, have struggled under new ceo ron johnson. but did see a nice gain on friday and jc penney is back in the green today. so who's going to win this bitter battle and which stock should you be adding to your portfolio if any? let's talk numbers on them today on the technical side is carter worth. on the fundamental side mark lichtenfeld. mark, we'll start with you on the fundamental side. this trial has been nasty. they tried mediation. it failed. they're back in court. does it matter who wins to decide which stock you would buy right now? >> no, it doesn't really matter. i think it'll be a short term catalyst. if it goes against jc penney there's so much bad news baked into the stock price i don't think it'll have too much of an effect.

macy's looks fine. it's got double digit earnings growth expected over the next five years annually. stock chart looks good. it's absolutely fine. but i think jc penney is more interesting here. jc penney reminds me of an emergency room patient who's got a severe case of appendicitis. the appendix has ruptured. one of two things is going to happen. they're either going to die waiting for treatment or somebody's going to go in, operate, take out the appendix and the patient will eventually get on its way and return to life. ron johnson, ceo of jc penney, is that ruptured appendix right now. dr. bill akman in my opinion is going to go in and remove him. bill akman has been very clear about his support for ron johnson until last friday when he said that johnson's tenure has been, quote, very close to a disaster. he used the word "disaster." if my boss used the word disaster i'd be looking for a new job pretty quickly, updating my resume. >> ron johnson as ruptured appendix. i've not heard that one yet. carter? which way would you go here? >> looks like a ruptured

appendix, that's for shoe. i think that's quite right. look at the comparative chart for fun. i've got a ten-year chart which juxtaposes macy's and jc penney. beautiful moves off the '02, '03 low. they top in '07. that's where things go terribly wrong for jc penney. jc penney is back at its '09 lows. that's emergency room type stuff. the market is at its '07 highs. macy's returned to '07 highs. mark makes that good point. it is a good chart. here's the thing about let's just say it is someone in the emergency room. why not wait until the operation is finished and we do get a first sign of life from the patient? i think buying here is -- is risky. in a sense that one doesn't have to be a hero. let the patient heal a little bit. let's show some vital signs. that's the history of buying stocks in down trends. often it's wrong. it's why the phrase value trap was created. we think that's what this is. we let someone else take the first four or five points off the low. then become interested. >> all right.

>> i think there's something to be said, though, about buying into a panic, buying when there's blood in the streets. that's certainly the case with jc penney. if you wait until the business turns around it's going to be too late. the stock will have aappreciated already. >> oh, sure. i'm sorry to interrupt. not so much when the business turns around. that'll be way past the stock move. stocks will move in advance. if one thinks about idiosyncratic situations like this like a decker's or best buy or hewlett-packard, the price starts to move well in advance of the news improving. i want to see some action. some price improvement. some signs from the patient. >> very good. got it. i got to go at this point, guys. got to go, mark. thank you for joining us. carter, as always. thank you for this edition of "general hospital" today. mandy? >> well, as the retail world has two titans duking it out, the media world has a clash of its own. julia barsoorstin with the developing fight involving a company called ario and news corp.

julia? >> that's right. this is just the latest in the legal throwdown between all of the broadcast networks including news corp.'s fox and ario, which is backed by barry diller's iac. this battle is particularly heated because barry diller created the fox tv network with news corp. through murdoch. the big question is what are they fighting over? ario has found a way to stream live tv directly to users online without paying the broadcast networks. it only costs $12 a month. last week aereo scored a win. they believe aereo is pirating our broadcast signal. carey says the company has no choice but to develop business solutions to a service like aereo saying, quote, one option could be converting the fox broadcast network to a paid channel which we would do in collaboration with both our content partners and affiliates. fox already does earn

retransmission fees. this isn't necessarily a game changer for news corp.'s finances. but it's a really big and interesting strategic shift in light of new and threatening business models. aereo just responded with a statement saying it's disappointed that fox believes consumers should not be permitted to use antenna to access free to air broadcast tv. aereo cites the fact when broadcastered asked congress for a license to broadcast digital air waves they did so with the promise they would broadcast in the public interest and remain free to air. this battle cuts to the core of the television business. an idea that broadcasters want to be paid not just for ads, but also retransmission fees. this battle is only going to continue to heat up as aereo moves forward wits plans to roll out to 22 new markets across the country. back over to you. >> interesting story. thanks very much for the latest on that, julia boorstin. let's take a look at what the dow is up to with only about half an hour to go. it is currently up by 15 points. i think that might be the high of the day, you know, bill. >> it is. >> we were down, what, by 67

points earlier on the day? a really good comeback here in the last hour. >> we've come back 82 points at this point. we'll see what we do here as we go to the last half hour. alcoa is about to kick off earnings season. maybe the market's anticipating that. coming up, how you should prepare for your portfolio for what some say could be a game changer for speaking of alcoa, chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld will break down those numbers for us before he speaks to the street. an exclusive interview right here on the "closing bell" coming up just after the bell in half an hour from now. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 opportunities are waiting to be found in faraway places. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade in 30 different markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help me seize opportunities, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 potentially better returns and new ways to diversify.

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well, the well, the dow is at session highs up by 19 points. we are just about half an hour away from the start of earnings season. again, alcoa is going to kick it all off as it always does. chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld will break down those numbers x exclusively on the "closing bell." over to josh lipton with a preview. >> hey there. alcoa as you said unofficially kicking off earnings season after the bell. the stock under pressure. the price of aluminum has been

down over the past couple years, hitting the bottom line. the street looking for earnings per share of eight cents. 23% year over year drop. on the topline analysts look for 5.88 billion. 2% drop. analysts look for the company's commentary on aluminum demand growth and where that demand is coming from. also because there's often a lot of noise around eps analysts are going to focus on an adjusted ebitda margin. later in the week a russian name reporting. wednesday watch out for family dollar. constellation. bed, bath & beyond. guys, back to you. >> thanks very much for that, josh. how should investors prepare themselves for the earnings season? >> with us today to talk about that, sam stovall from s&p capital iq.

nick reisch from earnings scout. sam, you guys at s&p famously raised the price target. you feel this earnings season will be what you're calling april anxiety. tell us what you're expecting. >> well, bill, i'm not sure why -- maybe the anxiety will leap across the table. >> i hope not. >> i think certainly what it's implying simply is that on a year over year basis, the way capital iq is fwagathering up a of wall street estimates is that the gain will only be .6%. if that number holds true for the full quarter it will end up being the trough quarter taking over from the position that the second quarter of 2012 had. our feeling, however, is that companies are very good at managing expectations. we saw 65% of the companies beat last quarter versus 62% average over the last ten years. so probably see something in the low to mid-single digits when all is said and done.

>> nick, to the point that sam was just making a moment ago, in terms of managing expectations, do you think we're going to see a lot of manufactured beats this season? >> yeah. just like no further than alcoa itself. if you go back 90 days ago al a alcoa's expectations were 13 cents per share. today it's 8 cents per share. if they come out with 9 or 10 cents, is it really a beat? that's what a lot of companies have done. manufactured earnings surprises by lowering expectations ahead of earnings releases. that's why we have 65%, 68% beating on average the last five years in the s&p. >> does the market care? whether it's a manufactured beat or a real beat? i mean, will the market move up regardless? >> no. what it really cares most about is the guidance that the companies are going to get after. what we've seen for the last two years, we've been in an environment where it's beat lower and stock prices go higher. the companies beat the manufactured surprise then lower their outlooks after reporting

and see stocks go higher. the rate at which they're lowering their estimates has gotten less and less severe over the last two years. we can thank a lot of central banks for that. >> whispernumber.com tells me that the expectation for alcoa is 11 cents, three cents above expectations. ti still two cents below what you were saying they were expecting a few weeks ago. >> bill, that 11 cents was the number last week. they've lowered the consensus has come down three cents in the last week. if it comes in at nine or ten is that really a beat? >> sam stovall with what's going on in japan. a global company like alcoa with the yen just plunging, we could hit 100 yen to the dollar tomorrow, rick santelli was telling me. this is not good for an alcoa. will these numbers from the last three months matter if the end continue -- yen continues to go lower? >> it's a moving target at all times. i think as the guest was saying, it's really what kind of guidance we're going to get for the rest of the year.

i think reading over what our analysts are expecting individually for the company's brought up to the industry and sector level, really it's the projection of a short-term slowdown because of concerns about the delayed tax refunds. increases in taxes. but more so because they're looking for an increase in the trajectory of global earnings and global gdp. and so what we could be seeing is, again, a renewed interest in some of the basic materials as well as the industrials as the year progresses. >> bill, i think you raise an excellent point. i know we're going to talk more about this later on in the show. nick, i mean, to what extent do you feel the multinationals this earnings season are going to blame a loss on foreign exchange rates, ie the stronger dollar? >> it's a good excuse. >> like the weather. foreign exchange out of our control. >> yeah. stronger dollar will be a little bit of a headwind. i don't know that they're going to blame it so much on that as some of the business, some of what we've seen in global pmis from emerging markets and emerging markets in general.

brics are really lagging. that's where a lot of the companies, material companies, industrial companies are doing business. there's a slowing -- rate of change of slowing a little bit faster than expected in those areas. their profits may get a little hit. i think once we get past where there could be a temporary growth scare coming here this first quarter, with all that central bank action, i think it paves the way for -- defensive stocks have been outperforming the last several weeks if not months. that could change as we get through the growth scare here in the feirst quarter into the second half of the year. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. sam, as alice roosevelt longworth once said, if you can't say something nice about anybody, come sit next to me. >> next time, bill. >> thanks, guys. see you later. heading toward the close. 20 minutes left. mandy, we just continue to set new highs. dow was down 68 points, now up 24. so we've had quite a comeback again like we did on friday. >> maybe you are the good luck charm, bill. in the meantime, coming up -- >> doubt it. >> -- someone here is warning there is something no one is

talking about that could ruin earnings season for investors. you do not want to miss it. also, the housing market may be showing signs of a comeback. but the rebound is now facing a $1 trillion challenge. we'll explain coming up on the "closing bell." are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule.

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we're less than we're less than 20 minutes away from the closing bell. it has been a day of battles between the bulls and the bears. >> yes, it has been. bob pisani. we were just trying to do the math here. friday, think about this. after the unemployment number came out, the dow was down 170 points at one time. we came back 130 of those points. and now we're up another 26 points. >> that's what everybody's talking about. staring at this thing saying, huh? the s&p -- i watch the s&p. was 1540 friday morning. now we're at 1560. what are we up? 1.5% since the worst jobs report anybody has had in virtually years. i get the e maims. it's all about the fed. the fed is backstoppi inping everything. the s&p is up 100% since the bottom in 2009. earnings are up 100% as well.

people don't want to discuss that. they want to say the fed is behind everything. >> things are getting better. earnings are hardly tearing things up. expectations keep coming down, as we were just pointing out, with alcoa, for example. they were looking for 13 cents a few weeks ago. then came all the way down to 8 cents. >> this is as old as cell site analysts. we were expecting earnings to be up more than almost 6% at one point. now it's down to just a fraction of 1% on the s&p 500. they always bring them down. then they beat by a little. typical beat now for the s&p is about 3%. i'll bet you we'll end up with s&p earnings for the first quarter up about 3% to 4%. right now it's supposed to be basically flat. by the way, i care about wells fargo. i've been saying this for days. that's the real start of earnings season on friday. jpmorgan and wells fargo. because here you've got the biggest mortgage provider. one-third, almost, of all mortgages in the united states. and mortgage originations

generally have been down in the first quarter because refis have been down. that's the company i want to hear from. i want to hear how their mortgage refi is. they do over $3 billion each quarter in mortgages. >> yes. but we do have klaus kleinfeld of alcoa coming up. >> he will be here. >> tomorrow. >> the lousy aluminum numbers. >> aluminum prices are plummeting as well. >> last few months. in the meantime, we're 15 minutes and counting before the closing bell. the dow is currently up by 28 points. quite a comeback there. the s&p is also holding nicely in the black going toward the close. >> our next guest says this market has nowhere to go but down. l landisman explains why he's calling for a correction of at least 7%. straight ahead. td bank is announcing a management change right at the top. how it's going to impact the company's growth strategy. we've got the current ceo and his soon to be successful in an exclusive interview. we can ask both of them.

they're both here. it's only on the "closing bell."

coming up in the last ten minutes here, art cashin just handed me the order in balances here. bias is to the upside.

we'll see if we continue to set new highs. this rally is still intact, obviously. one of our next guests says this market has nowhere to go but down. why so negative? let's ask yuri landisman. also kevin coron from stiefel nicolas. >> i think this market is priced for perfection. we have earnings coming up. we have earnings guidance coming up. the economic data is starting to weaken. i just believe that something is going to rattle this market to the downside. then everybody's going to realize that the emperor has no clothes. >> do you agree with that assessment, kevin? >> i agree with some of it but not all of it. i look at the market at 15 times earnings. i don't see a market that's ebulent. a see a market essentially

fairly priced. we have had a decent run off. last july's bottom, a 15% move in the s&p. we do have earnings growth but it's flattening. most of the data we look at is moving in the right direction. as uri just pointed out, last friday's employment number was relatively soft. so when we put it jobs

report never happened. again, i come back to your issue that you think the mentality, that the mindset of the trading world is going to change at some point and realize that this market has no business being where it is. >> the bulls are controlling the market right now. no question about it. and have been for a long time. and it's -- i think what's going to happen is you're going to get to the point of maximum optimism. when everybody believes that it can't go down and that it's going to go up for whatever reason. decent earnings, the fed backing them up, the trend is your friend. it's when everybody gets optimistic that you have the biggest falls. i think we're very close to that. >> i don't know. i don't feel like there's that

much euphoria or optimism out there. if anything, kevin, i feel like this is one of the most hated rallies we've seen in a long time. it's almost like we've got here by stealth, wouldn't you say? >> yeah. i this has been a grinding, painful rally for a lot of folks. most of us remember what happened in the late 1990s and the euphoria surrounding that. most of us realize that the housing market in mid-2000s, the euphoria around that. i don't think you have a lot of euphoria around this market. in fact, most of the sentiment in surveys that have been taken, there's a lot of folks who are underinvested in this market. when you look at the equity risk premium or difference between the earnings yield and what you're getting paid to hold treasury bonds, it's not indicative of a very compressed spread. you don't have priced into the market very, very high multiples. i would say in a range of one to ten, maybe this is a five or six. but you don't have a lot of risk -- you don't have a lot of euphoria in this market at all. >> all right. that is a hot topic among the water cooler, job owner these

days. when and if the correction is finally going to happen. thank you both. good discussion. coming up next, we're coming right back with the closing countdown, bill. >> yes, we are. as the market continues higher, just minutes away from the kickoff of earnings season, alcoa chair and ce klaus kleinfeld gets the party started. stay tuned for that. could set the tone for tomorrow. ♪

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he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. two minutes left here. let me just show you. i've got peter costa from empire excuses. i don't know. his entire family is back here with us as well. look at this chart. this is the dow going back to friday. the low of the day on friday when the industrial average was down 170 points on the open after that bad jobs number. we have just come back since that time. so a gain of, what, 210 points? >> 210 points. it's like mae west said. you can't keep a good market down. >> we are above where we were on friday. this could be an outside day. this could be a key reversal day as technicians would call it

here. >> yes. i don't really follow totally the technical aspects of the market. but i definitely think this is technical anomaly. >> mandy, i mean, is the mood this strong in asia? you were just there. >> oh, sorry. i wasn't -- >> that would be you, mandy. >> sorry. i just got back from australia. >> is the mood that strong in asia? are they looking for the markets to continue higher? japan has done well. china and the others have not. >> totally different story. i think the printing presses at the boj are well and truly working 24/7 which is why japan is moving higher. but i was actually just going to quickly ask a question. and that is, with regards to what bob pisani was saying earlier about, you know, a lot of people say, well, when we get bad news like the jobs report, it translates to good news in terms of keeping the fed in play. that's why the market ostensibly moves higher. >> the fed outweighs the jobs number is what it comes down to. >> a lot of people have felt